5 thoughts on “treasures jewelry wholesale What is the "black swan phenomenon"?”

  1. Julian

    wholesale jewelry vendors in nyc The black swan (Black Swans) phenomenon refers to unpredictable major rare events, but it changes everything in addition to it. Many black swan incidents have occurred and intensified. The appearance of the black swan is enough to subvert everything.
    before discovering Australia, people in the old world think that all the swans are white, which is an indisputable creed proven for experience. For those who believe in unswervingly), the first time I seeing black swans may be an interesting and amazing thing, but this is not the meaning of this story. It reveals that we learn from observation or experience The huge limitations and the vulnerability of our knowledge. As long as one observation result, the general conclusion that the general conclusions of the observation of the white swan can be invalidated. All the things you need are just a black bird.
    We here as "Black Swan" is an event with the following three attributes: First of all, it is an out -of -bureau event that exists outside the expected range. The possibility of appearing. Second, it has a huge impact. Third, although it is unexpected, human nature makes us make a reason for it afterwards, making it explain and predictable.
    In life, randomness can be seen everywhere; looking around, black swans are everywhere. In the capital market, it is the same. People always explain unspeakable events with their limited life experience and unbearable beliefs; The professionals who are calculated are difficult to guarantee that it is not randomly fooled. In fact, what we should do is to conform to this unknown future.
    "Black Swan" revelation: The worst expectations will eventually become a reality. Black Swan The logic is that what you don't know is far more important than what you know. Many black swan incidents will be triggered and intensified by their unpredictable. R

  2. Mitchell

    mia jewelry wholesale The Black Swan Event (English: Black Swan Event) refers to a very difficult predictive and unusual incident, which usually causes a negative response or even subverting market chain. From the sub -loan crisis to the sinking of the Southeast Asian tsunami, from the 9.11 incident to the "Titanic", the Swiss Central Bank abandoned the euro and the Swiss franchise rate. Black swan exists in various fields, and it can't escape its control regardless of financial markets, business, economy, or personal life.

    The origin of the name
    mads before discovering the Black Swan in Australia, Europeans before the 17th century thought that swans were white. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable belief collapsed. The existence of the black swan means unpredictable major rare events, but it is unexpected, but changes everything. Humans always believe in experience, and do not know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. However, whether it is expected by the stock market, the government's decision -making, or the simple and simple choice of ordinary people, the black swan cannot predict. The incident of September 11, the United States' subprime crisis, and the snow disaster in our country confirmed this point

    This meaning to
    about 400 years ago, Francis Bacon issued this way. Warning: Beware of being bound by the silk thread of our own thoughts. But we always make such a mistake. We always think that what happened in the past is likely to happen again, so we can't help but do things with experience. For example, we often compose simple reasons or stories to explain that we still don't know (and it is likely that we can't know it at all). For a simple example: We cannot predict that the stock market will rise or fall in the future. According to the reason for the prediction, it is too simplified or the error is simplified. In fact, the real and major events are unaware of it. Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this "black swan". This argument of the author, for the MBAs who rely on the development of economic development and even won the Nobel Prize, can be said to be a heavy blow.
    of course, there are also opinions that some people make a fuss about the so -called black swan incident. The so -called black swan incident is not worthy of a lot of fuss, because if all the factors that determine a certain event (including but not limited to "real major events") can be accurately expected. Far -time weather, distant future of a certain dust trajectory, the front and back of a distant future coin when a certain future coin is landed, even if such events are usually regarded as accurate prediction. Can be accurately expected.
    Logic analysis
    "Black Swan" logic is: what you don't know is more meaningful than what you know. In the process of human society development, what has a significant impact on our history and society is usually not what we know or foreseeable. The stock market will suddenly collapse, and the US real estate bubble will cause the subprime crisis that no one is expected. A sudden heavy snow will cause most of China to be paralyzed and bring hundreds of billions of losses ... We are actually "" "Black Swan" surrounded. Even if you don't leave home, it is not difficult to recognize the influence of the black swan incident. Look at your own living environment. Several major events, technical changes and inventions that have occurred around you since your birth. How many are they in your expected? Look at your own life, your career choice, your lover, betrayal of friends, rich or fell, rising in the stock market, or collapse ... How many things happen according to the plan?

    The black swan incident in the financial market is characterized by the mutation of market trends, that is, the original market trend will suddenly end without warning, and there will be unilateral cities that have a strong reversal of the original trend. Essence
    The first black swan in the gold market took place from 1933 to 1934. The new Roosevelt policy born after the Great Depression announced that private holding gold was illegal. Congress legislative priced gold to $ 35 per ounce, and the dollar quickly depreciated 69%.
    The second black swan in the gold market took place on August 15, 1971. US President Nixon issued a statement to terminate the US dollar exchanges of gold and openly tear the Bretton Forest Agreement. In the next few years until 1980, the price of gold rose from $ 35 to $ 850.

  3. Herbert

    imported fashion jewelry wholesale Black Swan phenomenon refers to unpredictable major rare events, but it changes everything in addition to it. Many black swan incidents occur and intensify because they are not expected. It is enough to subvert everything.

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